Lithuanian renewable energy congress – 7th edition

Lithuania stands at a decisive moment in its energy transition. Rapid renewables deployment, diminishing baseload generation, rising electricity demand from transport and industry electrification, and increasing interconnection flows are reshaping the market faster than regulations and infrastructure can adapt. This panel gathers key experts to examine the country’s real-time challenges:

* How fast can we realistically build solar, onshore wind, and offshore wind?

* Are we approaching saturation in certain grid zones?

* What will the price dynamics look like as the Baltic region synchronises with continental Europe and integrates more variable renewable energy (VRE)?

* Which flexibility assets—storage, demand response, virtual power plants, CHP optimization, hydrogen—are truly needed to stabilize the system through 2030?

* And most importantly: are the current market design and incentives ready?

Key Discussion Points:

1. Build-Out Status & Grid Readiness

* Current deployment of solar and onshore wind—are connection queues outpacing grid reinforcement?
* Offshore wind: what is realistic timing for the first park?
* Have DSOs and TSO clearly communicated hosting capacities?

2. Commodity & Wholesale Market Trends

* What are the structural causes of Lithuania’s current price volatility?
* How will upcoming regional changes—Finnish nuclear return to full capacity, Latvian hydro variability, Polish coal dynamics—affect Lithuanian day-ahead and intraday prices?
* Are long periods of near-zero or negative prices becoming the new normal?

3. Flexibility Imperative

* Which flexibility resources are actually bankable today?
* Storage: are current capacity mechanisms or CfDs enough?
* Role of aggregators, dynamic tariffs, and industrial demand-side response.
* Should Lithuania consider a local flexibility market or rely on EU-wide balancing?

4. Market Saturation & Curtailment Risk

* Are distribution-grid bottlenecks limiting small-scale PV economics?
* What curtailment levels are forecasted for 2025–2030?
* How will smart inverters, co-located storage, and hybrid PPAs mitigate risks?

5. Policy & Market Design Adjustments

* Are existing regulatory frameworks aligned with EU Electricity Market Design reforms?
* Should Lithuania introduce locational incentives or capacity mechanisms?
* Do current grid tariffs incentivise or disincentivise electrification in transport and heating?

The Baltic electricity system is entering a new phase: renewable penetration is rising sharply, inertia is falling, price volatility is increasing, and the post-synchronisation grid requires more flexible, fast-responding assets than ever before. In this environment, short-duration battery energy storage systems (BESS) — typically 30 minutes to 2 hours — have moved from “nice to have” to core grid infrastructure.

Lithuania’s landmark 200 MW / 200 MWh national grid-reserve BESS project, the largest in the region, has set a new operational benchmark and demonstrated that modern battery systems can deliver FFR, inertia-like behaviour, black start, congestion relief, and renewable smoothing — all with sub-second response times. Meanwhile, developers across the Baltics are deploying merchant and hybrid BESS projects to monetise opportunities in ancillary services markets, intraday arbitrage, aFRR/FCR, and imbalance management.

But as deployment accelerates, the questions get harder: Are Baltic markets ready to properly remunerate fast frequency products? How do developers balance degradation with revenue? What regulatory reforms are still required? What financing structures make merchant storage bankable in a small, volatile market? And how can the region optimise BESS integration as we move deeper into a synchronised European system?

Key Discussion Points:

1. Fast Frequency Response & Inertia: How Fast Is Fast Enough?

• Performance criteria for FFR, FCR, and synthetic inertia in low-inertia grids.
• Lessons from Lithuania’s 200 MW BESS on control tuning, ramp-rate limits, and grid-forming capabilities.
• How new EU-wide balancing products will reshape Baltic frequency response markets.
• 2. Degradation vs. Profitability: The Cycling Sweet Spot
• How developers balance high-value FFR cycling against battery ageing.
• Degradation modelling: NMC vs. LFP, throughput warranties, augmentation strategies.
• Understanding the operational differences between high-frequency services and energy arbitrage.
• 3. Revenue Stacking in Volatile Markets
• Prioritising services: FFR, FCR, aFRR, reserve capacity, aFRR energy, intraday arbitrage, congestion management.
• Merchant models in a small Baltic market: opportunities and limitations.
• Black start and TSO-procured system services as long-term revenue anchors.
• 4. Market Readiness & Regulation in Lithuania and the Baltics
• TSO tender frameworks, qualification rules, and performance penalties — what works, what is missing.
• Grid code evolution: enabling grid-forming inverters, synthetic inertia, congestion relief functionality.
• The impact of taxation, balancing responsibility, and licensing rules on BESS economics.
• Alignment with post-2025 EU synchronous system requirements.
• 5. Case Studies: Baltic BESS Projects — What’s Working, What’s Not
• Deep dive into Lithuania’s 200 MW national grid reserve BESS: procurement, commissioning, operational experience.
• Pipeline projects in Latvia and Estonia: merchant and hybrid structures, regional interconnector integration.
• Lessons from containerised BESS deployments in small-to-medium systems with limited inertia.
• 6. Technology, AI, and Operational Optimisation
• AI-driven dispatch optimisation for arbitrage, state-of-charge management, and degradation control.
• SCADA integration and real-time analytics for multi-service participation.
• Accuracy of forecasting: intraday pricing, imbalance patterns, and renewable curve prediction.
• 7. Financing, Investment, and Bankability in Emerging Storage Markets
• Financing structures: public tenders, merchant financing, multi-service offtake contracts, and hybrid PPAs.
• How lenders assess risk: degradation, volatility, grid constraints, and uncertain revenue stacking.
• EU funding, green funds, and multilateral development banks supporting early-stage storage.
• 8. The Future: Scaling Storage in Baltic, Nordic, and EU Contexts
• Co-location with solar and wind to reduce curtailment and increase capacity factors.
• Grid-forming BESS as part of national security and resilience strategies.
• The emergence of long-duration storage pilots and hybrid battery–hydrogen concepts.
• How Baltic experiences can guide other small-to-mid-sized systems worldwide.

The Contracts for Difference (CfD) mechanism can play a strategic and increasingly central role in Lithuania’s renewable energy development, with energy supply exceeding energy demand on the electricity market and the lack of corporate PPAs on the market, especially if the country wants to reach its 2030 and 2050 energy goals.

This panel will explore how Contracts for Difference (CfDs) can shape Lithuania’s renewable energy landscape, enabling large-scale project development while managing investor risk and ensuring price stability.

The panel will examine potential for onshore wind or solar CfD scheme structure, auction outcomes, and how CfDs can complement other offtake models such as corporate PPAs and merchant exposure.Speakers will address how CfDs are being used in other countries to drive renewable targets, support grid integration, and align with evolving EU electricity market reforms. The discussion will also offer insights into how CfDs can support innovation, local supply chains, and cross-border project financing.

Key Discussion Points:

• De-risking Renewable Investments: 
  CfDs provide long-term revenue stability by guaranteeing a fixed “strike price” for electricity generated. If market prices fall below this level, the government compensates the developer – reducing financial risk and attracting private capital.
• Driving Cost-Competitive Renewable Deployment:
  By using competitive CfD auctions, Lithuania can ensure that new renewable capacity is added at the lowest possible cost to consumers. This mechanism can support the growth of utility-scale solar and wind and is expected to underpin future offshore wind tenders.
• Enabling Offshore Wind Development:
  The upcoming offshore wind project in the Baltic Sea is expected to use CfD-based support scheme. These will be essential for bankability, given the capital intensity and long timelines of offshore infrastructure.
• Aligning with EU State Aid Frameworks:
  CfDs align with the European Commission’s guidelines on state aid for climate and energy, making them compliant and transparent mechanisms for incentivizing renewables while maintaining market integrity.
• Enhancing Grid Planning and Market Integration:
  With predictable CfD-backed capacity, Lithuania’s grid operator (Litgrid) can better forecast system needs, while policymakers can plan for integration, curtailment management, and balancing services more effectively.
• Challenges and Considerations:
  CfDs must be well-calibrated to reflect market realities and not overcompensate. Long-term CfD contracts may require adaptation for future flexibility, such as incorporating hybrid projects or energy storage. Proper regulatory oversight is essential to ensure fair competition and public benefit.

As Lithuania rapidly scales up its renewable energy capacity—with ambitious goals to reach 100% green electricity by 2030—the focus is shifting from generation to commercialisation. Ensuring reliable, bankable offtake strategies is now critical to unlocking financing, stabilising revenue, and attracting long-term investment into wind, solar, and hybrid energy projects.

This panel will explore the evolving landscape of energy offtake in Lithuania, including the rise of corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs), the ongoing role of government-backed Contracts for Difference (CfDs), and the increasing exposure to merchant market risk.

Panellists will provide practical insights into pricing structures, risk mitigation, regulatory support, and how offtake strategies are adapting to a dynamic, interconnected Baltic energy market.

The discussion will also cover the needs of energy buyers—from industrial consumers to public procurement—and how offtake models are supporting Lithuania’s grid resilience, energy independence, and decarbonisation goals.

Key Discussion Points:

• The Rise of Corporate PPAs:
  How Lithuanian and regional companies are using direct power purchase agreements to meet sustainability goals and hedge against energy price volatility.
• Merchant Risk & Market Exposure:
  What does the move toward market-based offtake mean for investor confidence, and how can projects remain financeable in a high-risk pricing environment?
• Grid Access, Congestion & Cross-Border Trade:
  Exploring the impact of interconnectors and Lithuania’s integration with Nordic and continental European markets on PPA pricing and risk-sharing.
• Policy, Regulation & the Role of the State:
  Examining the future of government-backed offtake mechanisms, the Offtaker of Last Resort framework, and grid fee reforms under VERT and Litgrid’s oversight.
• Contracting Best Practices:
  Insights into PPA structuring, credit risk, termination clauses, and securing financing from Baltic and international banks.

Panel Moderator: Mr Paulis Zapolskis, Partner, Head of Energy Industry Group, TEGOS

PLEASE NOTE:

All timings are approximate. The organisers reserve the right o agenda the agenda to reflect market changes and updates and are not responsible for speakers no-show and last-minute replacements.